DSCR Déjà Vu? & Who Wins When LOs Wash Out

In October of ‘23, I wrote that nearly 100,000 LOs had washed out over the prior year. What I didn’t know at the time was how those dynamics would affect referral relationships for LOs still in the game.

In today’s edition of The Mortgage Scoop, we’ll take a closer look at who capitalizes when LOs exit. Plus, a scoop on mortgage tech firm Inflooens getting acquired; should we be shorting DSCR loans & more.

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The folks at RETR recently studied the impact of 25,072 loan officers having exited the industry in early 2026. Those LOs worked with 34,951 buy-side real estate agents. “At a national level, that translated to ~4% of buy-side agents potentially losing a lending partner,” CRO James Hooper wrote. “But that view treats all relationships equally. They aren’t.”

RETR analyzed how many of those exiting LOs had repeat transaction relationships w/ the same agents in ‘25. The picture changes significantly:

Even though 25K LOs exited, only a subset had established agent relationships. You might be wondering: What does this mean for me? IMO, it’s a good reminder that the originator’s business is largely built on incremental improvement. Those who spot opportunity early & act on it usually see the benefits compound over time.

Hooper suggested that LOs identify agents tied to high-frequency LO partnerships, understand where those relationships were concentrated & compete for a smaller pool of high-value connections.

In Friday’s edition of The Scoop, I asked folks to share what they were seeing w/ non-QM on the street. About a half-dozen people reached out to share their experiences anonymously.

“The Wall Street appetite for non-QM starting last year has been massive, and it's even bigger this year,” said one 30-year veteran of the space. For example, he said, one large Wall Street investor that used to do four securitizations a year now does one a month.

“Whenever Wall Street wants paper that much, and there's only so many good deals to produce on the origination side, the originators are still going to produce the loans, right?” he said. “I joke with my boss that w/ a Bloomberg Terminal, I'd be doing a ‘Big Short’ game looking up all the securitizations for Champions & Acra over the last 12 months—and shorting them. It's a DSCR issue; the TRID stuff is performing beautifully.”

Another source said it’s common to hear brokers talk about how they have outlets for bank statement loans that allow for self-prepared P&Ls w/ no third-party checks. “You also have brokers who advertise they have companies they hire to do the CPA letter, just to type it up but never review the statements,” he said. “To me, this is a red flag, but I guess the difference is that most people will fight to keep their primary home but likely to let go a rental.”

One executive at a top wholesale lender said that even though all of the above is true, he disagrees that it’s indicative of a return to The Bad Old Days.

“The main reason this is nothing like the Great Financial Crisis is because property values are stable; there is independence w/ the appraiser establishing market value; LTV caps are low such that if a loan goes into default, losses are minimal or likely zero; and non-QM rules require the securitizer to hold capital against the deal, so Wall Street is heavily invested in future performance.”

He added: “There’s still a huge supply shortage…I don’t think we face a softening in values for 10+ years.”

Total agency mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") new issuance was $98.7 billion in February ‘26, compared to $118.4 billion in January ‘26 (a decrease of 16.6%) and $74.6 billion a year earlier in February ‘25 (an increase of 32.3%).

Purchase mortgage issuance in February ‘26 was $55.1 billion, a decrease of 34.3% from January 2026 and a 0.3% decrease from February ‘25. Refinance issuance in February 2026 was $43.5 billion, a decrease of 7.0% from January ‘26 and a 103.0% increase from February ‘25.

Fannie Mae issued $27.3 billion in February ‘26, compared to $32.8 billion in January ‘26 (a decrease of 16.8%) and $19.9 billion a year earlier in February ‘25 (an increase of 37.2%). Freddie Mac issued $33.3 billion in February ‘26, compared to $35.2 billion in January ‘26 (a decrease of 5.4%) and $22.7 billion a year earlier in February ‘25 (an increase of 46.7%). Freddie Mac accounted for 55% of the conventional market share in February 2026 compared to 51.8% in January 2026 and 53.3% in February ‘25.

Ginnie Mae issued $38.1 billion in February ‘26, compared to $50.5 billion in January ‘26 (a decrease of 24.6%) and $31.9B a year earlier in February ‘25 (an increase of 19.4%). Ginnie Mae accounted for 38.6% of total agency securitizations in February ‘26, down from 42.7% in February ‘25.

This report is brought to you by Milliman. Milliman provides strategic and quantitative consulting services across the mortgage market with expertise in origination, servicing and capital investment.

Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae MBS Data Disclosure

Amit Ghole’s Inflooens has just been acquired by Ascend Companies Inc., the parent company of Advanced Data, Advantage Credit & few other related firms.

Inflooens, which describes itself as “the world's first digital mortgage framework uniting LOs, vendors & borrowers on a unified platform,” built a Salesforce skin that goes on top of Encompass.

Mortgage tech sources speculated that Ascend would likely take all of its wrapped information/analytics data, put it through the technology of Inflooens & bring it to the market. Ghole did not return a request for comment; Ascend also did not comment.

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