The Press Conference That Wasn’t & The Truth on FHA Delinquencies

On Tuesday, I received an email from HUD suggesting that I virtually attend a press conference the following day for a major announcement. The email didn’t identify what the “significant development” in the U.S. housing finance system would be, only that HUD Secretary Scott Turner & FHFA Director Bill Pulte would jointly break some news. A day later, the presser was canceled w/o explanation 🤷.

In today’s edition of The Mortgage Scoop, I share what the rumored announcement was. Plus, details on why maybe you shouldn’t panic about the soaring FHA delinquency rate, what’s up w/ Wells Fargo’s LOS transition, FirstClose’s M&A interest, an update on the Guaranteed Rate Affinity layoffs & my super serious threat to unleash OnlyMortgageFeet.com🦶on your inbox.

(🙏 If you like what you’re reading, tell a fellow mortgage junkie to sign up here.)

The Scoop hears that FHFA/HUD were planning to jointly announce a VantageScore pilot w/ a select group of lenders. It’s unclear if the lenders were even aware. Additionally, sources said historical FICO 10T data was expected to be released.

Anyway, things move fast 🏎️ in TrumpWorld & we’ll share updates if they do those things or launch a 160-year mortgage or sell HUD to Blackstone, etc.

A new paper from housing finance researcher Kanav Bhagat of Housing Risk & Policy Advisors claims the recent surge in FHA serious delinquencies is almost entirely the result of a policy reporting change, not a wave 🌊 of financially distressed borrowers.

The FHA 90+ day delinquency rate jumped from 3.57% in September ‘25 to 5.23% in January ‘26, a 1.66 percentage point increase in just 4 months. Several outlets have flagged this as a sign of growing financial stress among FHA borrowers, particularly in lower-income communities.

Bhagat argues that 92% of that increase (1.53 percentage points) is a direct result of FHA's new Trial Payment Plan (TPP) requirement, which took effect in October ‘25.

Under the old system, when a delinquent FHA borrower accepted a home retention solution (i.e. a loan mod, partial claim, or payment supplement), their loan was marked "current" the following month. Under the new TPP rule, borrowers must first make 3 consecutive on-time payments before the loan's status changes from 90D+ delinquent to current. So loans now sit in the 90D+ DQ bucket for at least 3 additional months, inflating the reported delinquency rate.

If not for the TPP requirement, Bhagat estimates the 90D+ DQ rate would have risen from 3.57% to about 3.70% over the same period, which he called normal seasonality. Any analysis comparing pre- & post-October ‘25 FHA delinquency data needs to account for this 1.53% structural difference, he argued.

Bhagat points to FHA loan transition rates, which is the share of loans moving from current to 30D delinquent, 30D to 60D, 60 to 90+ etc., as a better indicator of actual borrower stress. Those rates have remained stable and were actually slightly below year-ago levels as of February ‘26.

Digital lender/former dumb dolphin sanctuary Better has increased its warehouse capacity to $850M. Better has increased its warehouse capacity by more than $275M over the past 3 months. 

Meanwhile, the lender reported that it is categorizing Birmingham Bank as held-for-sale & is actively trying to sell it. Better also priced a class A common stock offering, which will mark the end of its at-the-market equity program. The company also said it had identified $25M in other expense reductions for Q2.

Better has said it expects to reach profitability later this year…

True Footage, the valuation/appraisal tech company, raised a $40M Series C led by Cox Enterprises’ Socium Ventures. True Footage is pretty interesting. It isn’t a traditional AMC but instead has W2 staff appraisers & has a platform called TrueTracts, which feeds analytics back to appraisers as they complete assignments. More than 20% of all appraisals flow through its platform.

Speaking of feet, quick reminder that I own the domain onlymortgagefeet.com. Without sufficient support, I will pivot hard from mortgage news/intel/memes to a full-blown inbox experience featuring mortgage pros’ feet. Don’t test me. And yes, if you’re reading this, I already have your email. Consider this your official warning. Upgrade to a paid Insider membership today!

Jokes aside, here’s what else we have on tap today for paid Mortgage Scoop Insiders: Wells Fargo’s LOS plans, FirstClose’s mortgage tech ambitions, who’s really jockeying to impress Compass boss Robert Reffkin & more.