Goodbye, J-Pow! Hello, K-Warsh! After years spent positioning himself for the job, conservative inflation hawk Kevin Warsh looks to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. 

The mortgage industry hopes that Warsh quickly pushes for rate cuts. But the road to rate cuts is not so simple—Warsh would be presiding over a FOMC that is deeply ideologically divided. And we haven’t even gotten to the heaviest question of all: Can Warsh convince markets that the Fed is truly independent from the executive branch?

In today’s edition of The Mortgage Scoop, we also share the freshest data on who’s killing it on cash-out refis & which non-Rocket lenders outperform their peers on recapture. 

Plus, for Mortgage Scoop Insiders only, we’ve got a story about a hockey agent 🏒acquiring an IMB, additional details on the most recent ICE Mortgage Technology layoff & intel on a sobering real estate scheme that most—but not all—lenders still avoid.

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Despite the venom directed at Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair alone cannot set benchmark rate policy. That doesn’t mean he’s powerless. The Chair can shape which risks get emphasized (inflation v. growth v. financial stability), decide how aggressively rate cuts/hikes are debated, & frame the "base case" staff forecasts that markets react to. But he’s not some kind of Econ God w/ absolute power.

Warsh’s pick surprised me a bit, TBH. His background doesn’t suggest he’d eagerly cut rates at Trump’s calling. In fact, he’s a fiscal hawk whose track record suggests he’s more likely to focus on inflation-busting than rate-cutting. Warsh left the Fed way back in the day b/c he didn’t like the QE policy. 

Maybe he’s changed his tune & agrees w/ the Trump administration that it’s the time for yuge rate cuts.

But Stephen Miran’s experience on the Fed may be something of a cautionary tale for mortgage optimists who expect a bunch of cuts this year: On the 2 occasions the Fed voted for cuts last year w/ Trump loyalist Miran on the board, 10 members voted for 25 bps cuts while Miran voted for 50 bps cuts. If Powell stays, Miran would lose his seat to Warsh. You have to really squint to see a big policy swing from the FOMC **unless** the economy starts to look really shaky.

Colin Robertson summed up the present outlook for mortgage.

If the Fed has zero intention of buying MBS again, don’t expect another move back to the 3-4% range for the 30-year fixed. The only way to get mortgage rates noticeably lower would be via weakening economic data, such as lower inflation and/or weaker labor. The “good news” on that front is labor seems a lot shakier than Powell has indicated in his latest press conference. 

I use good news in quotes because it’s actually bad news if unemployment spikes higher & mortgage rates fall. Sure, it helps if you’re still gainfully employed & can afford to buy a home. Or if you still have a job, currently own a home, & want to take advantage of a rate & term refinance. But it would be bad for the wider economy & the housing market, potentially leading to falling home prices again. 

So with Warsh at the helm, we might have one less potential path to significantly lower mortgage rates. And ironically, some might miss Powell when he’s gone if Warsh turns out to be even more hawkish than his predecessor.

Speaking of lower rates, mortgage brokers perform the worst at recapturing loans, per a recent RETR analysis. Credit unions & banks were best. No shock there. Here’s a look at the top retention winners by cohort: 

Banks ($100M+) 

1) CoVantage Credit Union (85.21%) 
2) Bank First, National Association (83.33%) 
3) Kennebec Savings Bank (82.94%) 
4) Northern Credit Union (82.18%) 
5) United Community Bank (81.44%)

IMBs ($100M+) 

1) A Best Financial Corporation (85.59%) 
2) South River Mortgage, LLC (77.85%) 
3) Active Link, Inc. (66.92%) 
4) Staunton Financial, Inc. dba John Adams Mortgage & Total Home Lending (66.86%) 
5) A+ Mortgage Services, Inc. (64.71%) 

Brokers ($100M+) 

1) Stone Bridge Mortgage Inc (59.17%)
2) Mortgage Depot LLC (56.14%)
3) SNW Investments (52.34%)
4) North Alabama Mortgage, Inc. (52.17%) 
5) Barrett Financial Group (49.25%)

Agency mortgage securitization loan purpose type distribution shifted notably in Q4 ‘25, with refis picking up steam. Purchase money production accounted for 62.4% of new securitizations, down from 79.8% in Q3 ‘25 and 69.5% in Q4 ‘24.

Downward trends in the 10-year Treasury rate and mortgage spreads over the past 12 months are contributing to an uptick in refinance activity. Rate/term refinances represented 26.6% of new loans in Q4 ‘25, compared to 9.2% in Q3 ‘25 and 19.0% in Q4 ‘24. Meanwhile, cash-out refinances declined slightly to 10.9% of new loans, compared to 11.1% in Q3 ‘25 and 11.4% in Q4 ‘24. The consistent level of cash-out refinance is supported by a continual churn of borrowers who seek liquidity regardless of rates.

Of those lenders issuing at least $1 billion in Q4 ‘25 (excluding builders & housing finance agencies), Cornerstone Capital Bank SSB had the highest percentage purchase of their total production (92.2% of issuance) followed by PrimeLending (85.7%) and NFM Lending (81.4%).

Of those lenders issuing at least $1 billion in Q4 ‘25, United Wholesale Mortgage had the highest percentage rate/term refinance of their total production (53.2% of issuance) followed by Freedom Mortgage (46.0%) and Village Capital & Investment (38.5%).

Of those lenders issuing at least $1 billion in Q4 ‘25, loanDepot had the highest percentage cash-out refinance of their total production (26.1% of issuance) followed by Wells Fargo (26.1%) and Rocket Mortgage (22.9%).

This report is brought to you by Milliman. Milliman provides strategic and quantitative consulting services across the mortgage market with expertise in origination, servicing and capital investment.

Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae MBS Data Disclosure

Scoopers, we’ve got some fun scoops below for paid subscribers, including insider details on the recent ICE layoffs, an M&A deal in Michigan involving a hockey agent & who’s lending on sober houses.