“It’s like a 3 minute drive but somehow a 24 minute walk,” grumbled 1 banker at the ride share lot at the Fontainebleau on Sunday night. He & two colleagues were on their way to the party at The Industry, undoubtedly the hottest 🌶 mortgage party of the half-dozen on Sunday night for MBA Annual. Hundreds packed the industrial space as club music played, women danced in glow-in-the-dark face paint, lasers blared & drink lines snaked 60 people deep. Vendors ✋ were very well represented & lenders were happy to talk roadmaps integrations & more.

If you were seeking a more subdued, nerdier 🤓 affair, the capital markets crew at MCT was an option at Zouk Nightclub. Meanwhile, in Downtown Vegas, the servicing peeps were at Cenlar’s party at the Mob Museum. They had a great jazz band 🎷.

Maybe you spotted Tammy Richards, who just left Kind Lending for NEXA & was holding court at upscale cocktail bar Bleau in Fountainebleau. Don’t be surprised if NEXA begins servicing their own loans in the near future. (Also on Richards’ flight from Orange County was Dom Marchetti & the two are not exactly BFFs, The Scoop heard.) 

This might be the last MBA show in Vegas for a while. Complaints about $9 water bottles🚰 & leggy walks aside, the Annual show is heading to Chicago next year, sources told The Scoop. MBA Secondary will be in NY🗽 next year but it will likely be moving to a new city afterward. (Not happy about that one as I live in Brooklyn.)

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Survive ‘til 25. You’ll still take licks in ‘26? Attendees at MBA Annual are generally feeling pretty good ahead of ‘26. Not great, but pretty good. The consensus from the Fontainebleau is that the worst is behind us, AI has so many promising potential uses, regulatory burdens are easing, macro trends suggest more home sales & refis in the year ahead.

The MBA’s economists forecast origination volume to rise roughly 8% next year, but many of the lenders who spoke w/ The Scoop have rosier predictions. “We’re forecasting business to pick up by about 15%,” said an exec at a top-50 retail lender. 

Still, the MBA’s own forecast for ‘26 is down 10% from the trade group’s call back in October ‘24. Rates aren’t expected to really fall as many had initially anticipated, dampening the mood somewhat.

“It’s still a challenging environment for lenders,” Mike Fratantoni said. 

In terms of profitability, there’s also huge variability from lender to lender. Whereas the average IMB made a profit of 25 bps in Q2, the spread between the upper quartile & the lower quartile was 90 bps, according to the MBA’s Marina Walsh. IMBs continue to eat up market share & they’ve managed to close a much higher percentage of applications to closings.

FWIW, the MBA forecast is far cheerier than Gary Cohn & Larry Summers’ forecasts, who expect an uptick in rates…

There were good vibes at the expo hall. Tech & marketing budgets are on the rise. Here’s a smattering of what The Scoop has heard. 

AMC/valuation tech firm Reggora this week debuted its 24-hour appraisal program, which leans heavily on hybrid appraisals. The data collection component is designed to be done by non-appraisers (typically real estate agents) & the appraiser chills at home & goes through the data to create an appraisal report. It's very controversial. Just take a look at Reggora founder Brian Zitin's LinkedIn feed. 

Appraisers are concerned that the avg per fee report is going to go down significantly but more existentially, that all these new workflows are killing what’s left of the profession. Zitin argues that the appraiser workforce is already shrinking in number & this will help them financially.

“Would you rather do 2-3 appraisal reports per day and make $600-$900 from the comfort of your home or one report per day while driving around for $500?” he asked one skeptic. The question really is if Reggora can deliver the volume to the appraisers. Do lenders really care that much about a 24-hour turn time to opt for Reggora over other AMCs? We’re going to find out!

It’s important to note that appraisers have data collection concerns w/ Reggora’s program (which fully complies with GSE guidelines). Will the average real estate agent do a good job with the forms? Judging purely by the absurd number of data errors, misspellings & typos I saw on the MLS when I bought a home in 2021, I wouldn’t bet on it…

As The Scoop first reported on Sunday, Rocket laid off a couple hundred workers on Friday. The lender says it’s less than 1% of the workforce. This was always expected. Rocket announced $500M in “synergies” in March in anticipation of the Mr. Cooper deal closing. They’ve offered a very generous severance package—12 weeks plus a week per year worked, plus up to a year in health benefits. IMO the real question is how many more layoffs will follow. The deal ended up being much more expensive than Rocket initially expected…

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