Zillow & Compass Are Coming for Mortgage Leads

On Wednesday, residents of Chicago woke up to something quite unusual: 40,000+ local listings had disappeared from Zillow. MRED, the Compass-allied local MLS, made good on its threats & at 9 a.m. local time turned off the IDX feed. This fight is ostensibly over private listings.

But in today’s edition of The Mortgage Scoop, we break down why this escalating war between the two most powerful players in real estate – Zillow & Compass – is actually about something else. And it’s a lose-lose scenario for most mortgage pros, unless they play a different game.

Also in today’s edition: Agency and FHA delinquency trends & some thoughts on the prospect of GSE streamlines. Most of this edition is for paid subscribers; here’s a link to a 10% discount. Hope you have a great holiday weekend!

At the end of Q1 '26, 30-day+ delinquency rates (30+ DQ) for total outstanding agency securitizations ticked down to 3.5% of outstanding unpaid principal balance (UPB) compared to 3.6% at the end of Q4'25. Early-stage delinquency rates (30–59 days) were 1.5% of outstanding UPB, while serious delinquency rates (90+ DQ) stood at 1.5% of outstanding UPB. 90+ DQ are 30 basis points higher than in Q1'25.

FHA late-stage delinquencies are diverging sharply from other portfolios*. Compared to Q1'25, FHA 90+ DQ rose 229 basis points to 6.43% (from 4.14%), while VA loans decreased 14 basis points to 2.31% (from 2.45%), Fannie Mae loans decreased 2 basis points to 0.32% (from 0.34%), and Freddie Mac loans decreased 1 basis point to 0.34% (from 0.35%).

Roll-rates from 30-day to 60-day delinquency was 11.0% in Q1'26, compared to 14.2% in Q4'25 and 12.8% in Q1'25.

*Since Q1’26, Ginnie Mae has altered their delinquency reporting definition to no longer include borrowers in Trial Payment Plans (TPPs).

This report is brought to you by Milliman. Milliman provides strategic and quantitative consulting services across the mortgage market with expertise in origination, servicing and capital investment.

Source: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae MBS Data Disclosure

On Wednesday, MRED disappeared 43,000 of its own members' local listings on Zillow to protect nine Compass Private Exclusives in California, Florida, & Georgia. Those Private Exclusives came into MRED via a deal Compass signed w/ the MLS in April. MRED says Zillow blocked those 9 deals, which were “lawfully listed,” so it went nuclear.  

Since that aforementioned Compass-MRED deal was struck, we’ve seen a dizzying number of other dominos fall in the real estate brokerage space: 

Here’s why all of that matters to mortgage pros: These developments fundamentally connect to who owns the data & the relationship w/ the buyer. Referral relationships w/ outside mortgage pros get squeezed. Think of this as the inverse of the aggregator servicer & its refi play.

Zillow’s “super app” business model, for example, is designed to push borrowers through Zillow Home Loans b/c mortgage revenue is more lucrative than simply taking a cut of an agent’s split. Zillow still advertises to agents via trusty ol’ Premier Agent, but has largely pivoted to Flex & is obsessed w/ achieving builder-like attach rates. 

Mortgage pros who have JVs & MSAs w/ Premier Agents tell me that lead quality has nosedived over the last year. The best leads are pushed via Flex, which carrot-and-sticks agents to be cool w/ Zillow Home Loans. No surprise there. 

According to Phil Ganz, a Florida mortgage broker-owner, there’s some sneaky stuff happening on the back-end. Ganz said he runs 100+ microsites that generate 1,500 leads per month. In April, Ganz was trying to figure out why leads in Zillow CRM Follow Up Boss were disappearing from Next Wave Mortgage LOs who had marketing partnerships w/ agents. He discovered that if the LO is added as a “Lender,” FUB’s new “AI Optimization” tool would lock the lender out & fire a “smart message” introducing a ZHL LO. Once added as a “Collaborator,” the LOs could see everything & Ganz fixed the leak.

I’d argue that Compass’s strategy is a far greater threat to most mortgage professionals. Here’s why.