In the early morning hours of Dec. 8, 2021, a floor-clearing brawl between rival NY/NJ mortgage bankers broke out at Harrah’s Casino in Atlantic City, where 6,500 real estate agents & mortgage pros had gathered for the annual Triple Play conference.

A video captured a suited man taking a sucker punch to the back of his head & falling to the ground. A few feet away, a man in a light jacket smashed a chair over the back of a downed opponent. He then took a swing at someone else but fell backward & then ate some punches. One mortgage banker was taken at the local hospital w/ minor injuries but no one pressed charges. 

“People are still talking about it to this day,” one mortgage executive who witnessed it told The Scoop. “It ruined the reputation of the conference.”

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As is customary, we’ve got Fed Day analysis from Optimal Blue’s Kevin Foley. 

The Fed looks poised to cut another 0.25% going into their December meeting, but let's take stock of where we've come since our last cut at the end of October and what we might expect going into 2026. 

The most important outcome from the October cut was the Josh Allen-style pump fake from Jerome Powell, suggesting another cut in December was "far from" a forgone conclusion. That sent probabilities tumbling from over 90% down to just 30%, only to find ourselves back at a 90%+ chance of a rate cut going into this week's meeting. Given that we're back where we started, perhaps someone like Kirk Cousins is a more apt comparison (Jerome Powell to the Vikings for one last run in '26?). 

The most important thing that I will be watching this week is the "dot plot," which shows what the FOMC members expect the Federal Funds rate to be in 2026 and beyond. Small changes here can have an outsized impact on markets. Keep in mind that long-term rates have risen going into the December meeting. 

The Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index (OBMMI) closed at a 2-month high yesterday of 6.25%. Finally, we're still recovering from the data black hole caused by the government shutdown. Expect more high-quality data from the BLS between now and the next Fed meeting at the end of January, which will help us understand the health of the labor market and overall economy.

Here's how the Triple Play brawl went down, according to accounts shared w/ The Scoop. This one’s for insiders, so if you’re interested in reading please upgrade to become an Insider.