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Netflix doesn’t have any mortgage reality shows? Why not? Credit: Screen grab from Fairway’s show “LO Confidential.”

Does This Hack Beat the 50-Year Mortgage?😼

While everyone is buzzing about 40- & 50-year mortgages to solve affordability, Next Wave Mortgage’s Phil Ganz believes the real story—& the one being missed—is what he calls the "anti-50 year" mortgage hack.

Ganz says he’s found a “massive loophole” in both FHA & Conventional scorecards: Shortening the term is the single most effective way to flip a "Refer" to an "Approve." 

“Most LOs are terrified of higher payments, but for high-income/low-credit borrowers, this is the magic bullet because of velocity of equity,” he told The Scoop.

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The Anti-50-Year Mortgage (Cont.)

Here Ganz’s deep dive into how a velocity of equity play works: The AUS doesn't just look at DTI; it looks at how fast the lender gets their money back. (Ganz ran the numbers by the Chenoa Fund.)

  • At 30 Years (6.75%): In 5 years, the borrower has paid off only 6.1% of the loan.

  • At 20 Years (6.75%): In 5 years, the borrower has paid off 14.1% of the loan.

The "Hack": In just 5 years, the borrower has more than double the equity stake ("skin in the game") on the shorter term. The algorithm sees this rapid de-risking & flips the finding to "Approve/Eligible," even if the monthly payment is significantly higher.

Real-World Proof (Happening right now): I have a file right now with Chenoa (FHA DPA) that is a "Refer" at 30 years & even at 25 years.

  • I ran it at 20 years, and it immediately flipped to "Approve/Eligible."

  • I emailed Miki Adams (President of Chenoa) showing her this data. She was surprised that the 25-year failed but the 20-year passed, & she immediately escalated it to her Credit Risk & Capital Markets team to see if they can open up the product bucket.

It works for conventional, too. Last month I had a Fannie Mae deal: 622 FICO, investment property, 15% down.

  • 30-Year: Hard "Refer."

  • 15-Year: Flipped immediately to "Approve/Eligible."

  • The takeaway: Fannie Mae basically said "Yes" because in a world where everyone wants to delay payments, committing to pay off the debt aggressively overrides the credit score risk.

“I don't think enough people know about this,” Ganz said. “Everyone is so focused on lowering DTI to get approvals that they forget about ‘Risk Layering.’ Shortening the term eliminates the risk layer entirely.”

What do you think about Ganz’s hack? Email me at [email protected].

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Let’s Start a Mortgage Reality Show! 🎥

Owning Manhattan’s second season 🏗 is out on Netflix. The reality show follows agents at Ryan Serhant’s eponymous brokerage as they broker multi-million dollar properties 🧧 & generally start fights w/ one another.

Anyway, it got me thinking: Why aren’t there any reality shows on mortgage lenders/LOs? You cannot convince me there isn’t enough drama in the space & I think it would be instructive for consumers to see how mortgage really works.

The closest thing that’s out there is a fun web show by Fairway called “LO Confidential.” The series tells the story of how several Fairway team leaders are navigating a tough market. Also, no one would mistake it for a Bravo/Netflix-style show – it’s pretty light on the drama & catfights.

Share your thoughts w/ The Scoop: Who should get a mortgage reality show? Who would star in it? What would it be called?

You Can’t Fire the Mortgage Utility Company ⚡

When New American Funding made the news in July for having the data of 50K customers exposed, they made a pretty simple decision: terminate the relationship w/ the vendor that was breached, Mobile Notary Zone. But few lenders will be able to do w/ SitusAMC, which was hacked a few weeks ago & exposed the data of an undisclosed number of people (but probably hundreds of thousands, if not more). 

SitusAMC touches about 2/3rds of secondary market due diligence & represents a single point of failure for most of the industry. As Michael Kelleher recently pointed out, it's effectively a mortgage utility. Think about the playbook that got us here: outsourcing for savings, consolidating for efficiency & sending it ashore for margin (Jobs sent to India, including underwriters & tech staff). 

“The uncomfortable question: Is fragmentation actually our best protection? As we race to unfragment, consolidate, and scale—are we building efficiency or vulnerability?” Kelleher asked. “Because here's the trade-off nobody presented to the board: Variable cost savings vs. single point of failure inserted into your pipeline. Every loan that moves from lock to Wall Street follows pipes. If the exit pipe is compromised, every loan is exposed. This isn't about blaming one vendor. It's about asking whether our vendor assessment process is broken.”

Key Housing Bill Cut Out ✂️

The bipartisan-supported “Road to Housing” bill isn’t happening. At least not yet. The bill, which contains 40 provisions to address housing affordability & supply, was not included in the final text of the National Defense Authorization Act. It’s the first comprehensive housing package in almost a decade. Supporters are optimistic they can get it in another bill in ‘26.

At the local level, there are some states/cities making interesting moves w/ regard to supply. Charlotte recently passed a new law that offers up to $80K in forgivable financing for ADUs. It resulted in the creation of nearly 200 ADUs. Predictably, many of the ADUs built are being used as guest suites or short-term rentals…

Quickies

  • As many of you know, I ran the newsroom at HousingWire for 5 years. For 4 of them, I worked regularly w/ a podcast producer named Elissa Branch. Elissa tragically died in a car accident in Texas over Thanksgiving weekend. She was such a wonderful, kind & generous person who made the world a better place. So many people miss her terribly. For me, the only small comfort in all that she was an organ donor w/ a rare blood type who saved the lives of 5 people. Her family is asking that donations be made out to the Southwest Transplant Alliance. HW’s Sarah Wheeler & Logan Mohtashami shared a nice tribute on the Dec. 3 podcast episode.

  • Top-producing PRMG LO Gino Fronti is leaving PRGM to lead West Coast operations for Lower. He's taking about 25 people w/ him. Lower’s never quite been able to get a foothold in California…

  • Milliman has acquired MorVest Capital, a premier provider of MSR analytics, risk management, & advisory services. Last week we heard from Milliman’s Brett Ludden on the shifting M&A landscape in ‘26. The Mortgage Scoop will also have exclusive mortgage data coming from the firm starting in early ‘26.

  • WestCap apparently won’t let a little lawsuit stop them from recruiting loanDepot call center LOs/managers. In recent weeks, Kevin Carr & Scott Kirkeby have joined WestCap….

ARMchair Critics

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